Global Oil Demand To Reach A Record 102mbpd In 2023

IEA increased its global oil demand forecast by 100kbpd to 102mbpd as the rebounding in air traffic and the release of pent-up Chinese demand dominate the recovery according to the Monthly IEA Oil Market Report.

• IEA expects non-OPEC+ to drive global oil supply growth by 1.6mbpd this year, which will be enough to meet demand in the first half of this year but falling short in the second half when seasonal trends and China’s recovery are set to boost demand to record levels.
• Global refinery throughputs reached a seasonal low in February at 81.1mbpd, because of the muted recovery in the US paired with the start of planned seasonal maintenance elsewhere.
• IEA expect 2023 refinery runs to average 82.1mbpd, up 1.8mbpd year on year. Refining margins remain healthy, especially for those running discounted Russian crude and feedstocks.
• Russian oil exports fell by 500kbpd to 7.5mbpd in February as the EU embargo on refined oil products came into force. Shipments to the EU fell by 800kbpd 600kbpd, compared with more than 4mbpd at the start of 2022.
• Russian crude exports to China and India also fell, while cargoes without a destination surged by 600kbpd to 800kbpd.
• Crude prices came off following the release of the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report but continued to trade above Tuesday’s close.
• Brent MAY 23 up 0.5% at 77.84$/bbl
• WTI APR 23 up 0.5% at 71.68$/bbl