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Global Risk Off Environment Weighs on CEE FX

EM FX
  • Preference for the US Dollar continues to grow today, supported by the global risk off environment amid growing concerns over renewed sanctions on Russia.
  • The DXY index broke above the 99.42 level this week and found resistance at 99.75 in today’s trading session, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 – 102.98 range. A break above that level would open the door for a move up to 100.
  • CEE currencies have been the most vulnerable since the start of the month despite hawkish central banks.
  • HUF has been the weakest performer among the EM world so far this month, down 4.5% against the US Dollar.
    • We have seen that the selling pressure on HUF has been rising this week following Orban’s victory over the weekend as market has been pricing in renewed political tensions with the EU in the near to medium term.
  • CZK is the second worst performer in April, down 1.6% vs. USD, shortly following by PLN (down 1.5%).
  • USDPLN has been trending higher following the NBP decision (+100bps hike today) after finding a local low at 4.2140, currently trading above at the 4.26 level.

Source: Bloomberg

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