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Global Supply Chain Pressures Lowest Since Feb’21 - NY Fed

US
  • Global supply chain pressures declined in July according to the latest monthly update from the NY Fed, with the decline uniform across most subcomponents.
  • Pressures are still elevated at 2 standard deviations above the historical norm but are down more than 4sd at the turn of the year and the lowest since Feb’21.
  • Comparing with core CPI ex shelter as a simple proxy for supply pressures within the CPI basket, it crudely implies downward pressure from an extremely strong +0.78% M/M back in June.

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