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CEE FX: Global Trade Risk Remains Key Driver for CE3 FX

CEE FX
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed pricing and associated dollar strength on the back of the stronger-than-expected US personal consumption data for December did little to move the needle for CE3 currencies overall. Each of HUF, PLN and CZK are trading around 0.15-0.20% weaker against the euro at typing, with Trump’s latest rhetoric on tariffs still the key driver for EM FX.

  • Despite today’s move higher, EURHUF remains below the 50-day EMA, the break of which last week strengthened a short-term bearish theme. We flag next support at 405.52, the Nov 15 low, while a stronger reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the Jan 7 high of 416.65
  • EURPLN has failed to make a convincing break of the key 4.20 handle despite testing the support level on a number of occasions this week. The cross is also back above the 2020 low of 4.2036, but owing to the sharp pullback last week, the downtrend remains intact overall.
  • EURCZK is at its best level of the week, with gains today potentially exacerbated by the break back above the 50-day EMA. Despite this week’s 0.4% advance, the cross sits in the middle of the YTD range.
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Modest hawkish adjustments in Fed pricing and associated dollar strength on the back of the stronger-than-expected US personal consumption data for December did little to move the needle for CE3 currencies overall. Each of HUF, PLN and CZK are trading around 0.15-0.20% weaker against the euro at typing, with Trump’s latest rhetoric on tariffs still the key driver for EM FX.

  • Despite today’s move higher, EURHUF remains below the 50-day EMA, the break of which last week strengthened a short-term bearish theme. We flag next support at 405.52, the Nov 15 low, while a stronger reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the Jan 7 high of 416.65
  • EURPLN has failed to make a convincing break of the key 4.20 handle despite testing the support level on a number of occasions this week. The cross is also back above the 2020 low of 4.2036, but owing to the sharp pullback last week, the downtrend remains intact overall.
  • EURCZK is at its best level of the week, with gains today potentially exacerbated by the break back above the 50-day EMA. Despite this week’s 0.4% advance, the cross sits in the middle of the YTD range.