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GoCs Rally 5bps Across The Curve (Mostly)

CANADA

The BoC holding rates at 0.25%, but with an intention of hiking ahead, saw GoCs rally ~5bps across most of the curve.

  • 2Y GOCs rallied 4.5bps on the hold, leaving them down -7bps at 1.1635% although that’s only back to Jan 14 levels, 15bps above USTs.
  • Roughly speaking, we've seen 5bp declines in 5Y and 10Y, whilst 30Y more muted at -2bps. For the day, 5Y -5.8bps at 1.576%, 10Y -4.4bps at 1.756, 30Y -2.4bps 2.023%.

CPI inflation is seen at 3% Y/Y 4Q22 (from 2.1%) and remains above the 2% target rate at 2.2% Y/Y in 4Q23 (from 2.5%). Surprisingly though, there was no revision to potential output estimates, with midpoints of 1.3% in 2022, 2% in 2023.

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