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GoCs Underperform After Budget But Soft CPI Still Weighs

CANADA
  • GoC underperformance to Tsys has built through the session (yields sit 1.5-3.5bps lower), possibly reflecting yesterday’s Budget.
  • Planned issuance was on the low side of expectations, and whilst deficit projections kept to fiscal anchors, high program spending creating risks of larger deficits if nominal GDP and revenue assumptions prove optimistic.
  • Can-US yield differentials sit 4-4.5bps higher on the day through 2-10s, but yesterday’s soft Canadian CPI still weighs heavily, especially at the front end with the 2Y differential of -74bps some 6bps lower than pre-CPI levels.
  • BoC-dated OIS hovers around 17bps for the next meeting in June whilst CORRA futures show 70bp of cuts through 2024 contracts.
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  • GoC underperformance to Tsys has built through the session (yields sit 1.5-3.5bps lower), possibly reflecting yesterday’s Budget.
  • Planned issuance was on the low side of expectations, and whilst deficit projections kept to fiscal anchors, high program spending creating risks of larger deficits if nominal GDP and revenue assumptions prove optimistic.
  • Can-US yield differentials sit 4-4.5bps higher on the day through 2-10s, but yesterday’s soft Canadian CPI still weighs heavily, especially at the front end with the 2Y differential of -74bps some 6bps lower than pre-CPI levels.
  • BoC-dated OIS hovers around 17bps for the next meeting in June whilst CORRA futures show 70bp of cuts through 2024 contracts.