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Gold Continues To Outperform Equities as Credit Spreads Widen

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Gold prices have been under pressure this month as the deterioration in the economic outlook combined with the geopolitical risks have been driving the Dollar higher against all currencies.
  • Gold hit a local low at $1,698 Thursday, its lowest level since August 2021, and is down nearly 18% since its all-time high of $2,070 reached on March 8.
  • We previously saw that even though support for the precious metal has been weak given the elevated inflationary pressures around the world, gold tends to be a good hedge against periods of market shocks and surging uncertainty.
  • Interestingly, the performance of gold has not been that ‘terrible’ if we look at the relative gains versus US equities.
  • For instance, the chart below shows that gold has outperformed the SP500 in the past few months (excess returns YoY), which is usually expected when credit spreads start to widen.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

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