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Gold Falls Despite Risk-Off Backdrop, Crude Moderates Losses

COMMODITIES
  • Spot gold is trading 1.5% lower today at $2,406/oz, despite the seemingly favourable risk-off environment.
  • Today’s price action saw the yellow metal pierce the first support at $2,405.4/oz, the 20-day EMA, exposing $2,353.2 next, the July 25 low.
  • The overall trend structure remains bullish though, with a clear breach of the 50-day EMA at $2,374.4/oz needed to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
  • Silver similarly trades poorly, currently down 5.0% at $27.1/oz, with key support at $26.018/oz, the May 2 low.
  • The gold/silver ratio thus approached 90 today, a level not seen since Q1 this year.
  • Meanwhile, crude markets are ending the day lower, but have moderated losses as better-than-expected US data assuaged some concerns of a looming recession.
  • WTI Sep 24 is down 0.6% at $73.1/bbl.
  • The increased possibility of another retaliatory Iranian attack on Israel and further escalation in the Middle East could limit downside moves, although the market may need to see tangible supply disruption before it becomes a major driver.
  • A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and sights are on the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. A clear break would open $70.73, the Feb 5 low.
  • Key resistance is seen at $78.88, the Aug 1 high.
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