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GOLD: TD Securities Initiate Tactical Short in Gold

GOLD

TD Securities initiate a tactical short in gold at $2533, targeting $2300 with a stop-loss at $2675

  • They write that their flow-based analysis suggests that downside risks are now more potent in gold, and initiate a tactical short.
  • TDS note that macro funds have scarcely held more gold than they do today, with their estimates now at levels that marked local highs in 2019 and 2016. CTAs are also effectively 'max long' and Chinese ETF outflows have resumed.
  • They see Asia as on a buyer's strike in physical, with visible short positions remains near decade-lows, while narratives in gold markets are unanimously bullish. As such, they see significant risks to the near-term outlook tied to positioning, despite the strong fundamental backdrop.
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