Goldman 1Q24 Preview: Private Capital, Restructuring & Pipeline

Goldman Sachs reports today: private capital, restructuring and the M&A pipeline are likely to be key features, we feel.

• Investment banking performance: GS is more FICC-geared than MS and that appears to be the weaker-performing of the secondary IB lines. Goldman’s strong M&A share will be closely watched as both a bellwether but also due to GS’s close ties to the private capital world, we feel.
• Asset management: private capital is being examined by regulators and central bankers globally as the lagged effects of sharp rises in benchmark rates have not (yet) shown themselves in credit issues. We may be seeing the softest of landings or the problems may be hiding in this opaque sector. GS’s “investing and lending” unit will be closely watched here.
• Restructuring: GS is now exiting large parts of the retail businesses it tried to build as a key part of the “Solomon strategy”. There is much reporting of defections and losses here, so could be some idiosyncratic risks.
• Outlook: GS is less geared to traditional commercial banking than the big banks that reported Friday, so we may see something more upbeat but that’s very dependent on IB pipelines, the private capital world and the franchise’s own performance.

Results are out 1230 London time, conf call is 1430 at: https://www.goldmansachs.com/investor-relations/index.html