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Goldman At Higher End Of CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • GS sees core CPI inflation at 0.58% M/M in tomorrow’s Dec print, towards the higher end of the surveyed range around consensus of 0.5% M/M. That pushes the Y/Y up 0.6pp to 5.5%.
  • There is the familiar pressure from used and new car prices and “upward pressure on other core goods categories due to supply chain bottlenecks and low promotionality during the holiday season”, whilst health insurance prices also likely rose again.
  • “While Omicron likely weighed on travel prices late in the month, we expect a more visible impact in the January report”.
  • Shelter inflation is estimated to remain strong, with rent +0.43% and OER +0.40% “reflecting the strength in our shelter tracker but an OER drag from imputed utilities”.
  • Headline is seen at 0.53% M/M on rising food costs but a pullback in energy prices.
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