Goldman: RBNZ Stops Short Of A More Dovish Signal

Goldman Sachs note that “our economists anticipate one more 25bp hike from the RBNZ, with risks titled towards a more extended hiking cycle—something that markets are already incorporating to a material degree.”

• “The NZD front-end curve inversion has moderated significantly over the last month or so as global yields have moved higher, and continued to do so after the latest RBZN meeting despite a message that was less dovish than it could have been.”
• “Given the emphasis on containing inflation pressure and willingness to aim for a restrictive policy despite forecasts for a recession keeps what has been a decidedly hawkish tone in place and suggest to us that risks are tilted towards renewed flattening for a curve that has seen relatively significant steepening of 2024 pricing.”