MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 24

IFO disappoints

MNI: GERMANY JUL IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 87

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Goldman Sachs: 1% Bank Rate by May with 25bp hikes every six months after

BOE
  • Expect 25bp February hike with passive QT beginning
  • “We now expect stronger wage growth and inflation, and recent BoE speakers have expressed concerns about the knock-on effects of high inflation. As such, we now expect the BoE to hike in back-to-back meetings through May”
  • “Expect the BoE to announce a fixed and gradual schedule of asset sales to begin in the summer, after hitting the stated 1.0% threshold in May. While highly uncertain, we are expecting asset sales of around £20 billion per quarter”
  • “We expect there to be very limited substitutability between balance sheet policy and rate hikes, consistent with recent comments from Governor Bailey. This suggests further increases in Bank Rate will be required alongside asset sales.”
  • “We look for 25bp hikes every six months over the medium term” with Bank Rate reaching 1.25% in Nov-22, 1.5% in May-23 , 1.75% in Nov-23 and 2.00% in May-24.
  • “It is possible that the MPC decides to hold an additional vote on whether to begin balance sheet run-off following the February meeting. If such a vote were to be held, it is possible that a couple of members vote against an immediate end to reinvestments”
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