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Goldman Sachs Anticipate A Balanced Post-Meeting Statement

CHILE
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to remain on hold, keeping its policy rate unchanged at 11.25%. They also anticipate a balanced post-meeting statement, in line with the previous meeting and current policy stance. We expect more explicit forward guidance to be included in the June IPoM which the central bank will publish the following day.
  • Since the last meeting, headline inflation in May printed at a low 0.1% mom, below consensus expectations. Core inflation excluding volatile items, the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, remained high (0.5% mom). Activity data, in general, also printed below expectations. Most notably, non-mining real GDP (IMACEC) declined 0.7% mom sa in April, putting an end to the positive activity momentum observed in the first quarter.
  • Overall, GS expect the MPC to welcome the direction of travel of the economy, noting that inflation has continued to trend downwards, and the output gap has narrowed. Nevertheless, the MPC will most likely also acknowledge that core inflation remains persistent and the output gap positive.
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