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Goldman Sachs Believes Odds of 25BP January Cut Have Increased

COLOMBIA
  • Following today’s stronger-than-expected economic activity data, Goldman Sachs believe that, at the margin, the odds of a follow-up 25bp cut at the January meeting have increased.
  • Goldman Sachs believe activity has been on a decelerating trend in 2023 on the back of soft business sentiment weighing on manufacturing, and the ongoing macro adjustment of the services sector, which was the main driver of the strong post-pandemic rebound. In contrast, primary activities have been mostly firming as the agricultural sector recovers from the large disruptions in 2021-2022.
  • Going forward, GS expect below-trend real growth on the back of tight domestic financial conditions, high inflation, depleting excess households’ savings, and a softening consumer credit cycle.
  • Elevated policy uncertainty given the administration’s aggressive legislative agenda, together with weak business sentiment, are likely to impinge further on private investment. Lastly, GS view the decision by the MPC to initiate the cutting cycle in December with a 25bp move as more likely to have been informed by a disappointing growth print rather than by comfort in the slow progress on the disinflation front.
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