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Goldman Sachs Comment on Flash GDP Data

HUNGARY
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  • Goldman Sachs note that while they tend to downplay the significance of flash GDP prints in any individual quarter – given the volatility of post-pandemic GDP growth and the potential for large future revisions – accelerating growth is consistent with high frequency growth indicators.
  • Although the Hungarian labour market continues to run strong, Goldman Sachs believe there is room for growth to continue to accelerate in Hungary (and the CEE more broadly) on the back of receding supply shocks and improving Euro area activity.
  • In their view, strong growth and a strong labour market are unlikely to have a sizable impact on inflation as CEE inflation tends to be driven by external factors which have improved as of late: exchange rates have stabilised or strengthened, gas prices are running at less than 1/10 of peak levels, and food commodity prices have weakened.
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  • Goldman Sachs note that while they tend to downplay the significance of flash GDP prints in any individual quarter – given the volatility of post-pandemic GDP growth and the potential for large future revisions – accelerating growth is consistent with high frequency growth indicators.
  • Although the Hungarian labour market continues to run strong, Goldman Sachs believe there is room for growth to continue to accelerate in Hungary (and the CEE more broadly) on the back of receding supply shocks and improving Euro area activity.
  • In their view, strong growth and a strong labour market are unlikely to have a sizable impact on inflation as CEE inflation tends to be driven by external factors which have improved as of late: exchange rates have stabilised or strengthened, gas prices are running at less than 1/10 of peak levels, and food commodity prices have weakened.