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Goldman Sachs Expect Another 25bp BCRP Rate Cut This Week

PERU
  • Goldman Sachs believe that BCRP remains comfortable with the overall dynamics of the disinflation process. Inflation momentum is still contained, one-year ahead expectations continue to approach the target, and the PEN appreciated by 2% since the last MPC meeting, arresting the weak trajectory it was on previously.
  • GS think that BCRP will likely look through the firmer sequential inflation print in February, which was driven by seasonal holiday patterns and one-off factors. They expect inflation to return to the target band over the next couple of months and believe that this backdrop supports a further moderate rate cut.
  • GS continue to view the hurdle for an acceleration in the pace of cuts as high, due to the eroding policy rate differential. Maintaining the pace of cuts is also consistent with the hawkish statement featuring in recent MPC communiques that the 25bp moves do not necessarily imply a cycle of consecutive rate cuts in upcoming meetings.

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