Goldman Sachs: Expect Any Evergrande Default To Be Carefully Managed

Goldman Sachs note that "housing activity fell sharply in July and weakened further in August. At the same time, concerns over Evergrande are rising and signs of financing difficulties spreading to other developers are emerging. For now, our baseline remains that any potential default or restructuring of Evergrande would be carefully managed by the government with limited contagion effect in both financial and property markets. This would require a clear message from the government soon to shore up confidence and to stop the spillover effect, the absence of which we think poses notable downside risk to growth in Q4 and next year.