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Goldman Sachs Expect BCRP To Deliver Another 25bp Cut This Week

PERU
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to lower the policy rate by a consecutive 25bp to 5.5% on Thursday. They note that the BCRP remains comfortable with the overall dynamics of the disinflation process. With negative prints in March and April, each involving a sizable downside surprise, inflation momentum remains soft.
  • On a y/y basis, headline inflation softened by 43bp, hitting the mid-point of the demanding 2.0% ± 1.0% inflation target band for the first time since 2020, and confirming the central bank’s expectation that inflation was due to return to the target soon. In turn, one-year ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.5%, tracking within the target band for six months in a row.
  • GS view recent remarks by Governor Velarde that the policy rate could fall 100bp below the Fed funds rate as broadly supportive of the ongoing normalisation of the policy stance at a prudent pace of cuts, despite the gradual erosion of the rate buffer. In all, the level of policy restrictiveness remains high by historical standards.
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