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Goldman Sachs Expect Inflation to Decline to +6.3% Y/Y

POLAND
  • Goldman Sachs forecast headline inflation to decline to +6.3% y/y in December (Prior: +6.6%; BBG consensus: +6.5%). Data is released tomorrow at 0900GMT/1000CET. They expect easing across most categories as core and food inflation both decline on base effects, while the upwards fuel price correction – following the artificial price suppression ahead of the elections – was completed in November.
  • They add that they expect headline inflation to continue declining considerably in Q1. Sequential core inflation measures continue to improve, while favourable base effects in household energy inflation (due to re-introduction of VATs in January 2023) will contribute significantly to easing headline pressures in January.
  • Set against these developments and recent, incrementally-dovish comments from NBP President Glapinski, Goldman Sachs continue to see the NBP recommencing its cutting cycle in Q1.
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