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Goldman Sachs Expect Inflation to Rise to +65.0% Y/Y

TURKEY
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline inflation to rise to +65.0% y/y in December given strong base effects from the sharp decline in inflation by end-2023 (Prior: +61.98%; BBG Consensus: +64.95%).
  • Their forecast is in line with consensus and the projections of both the CBRT and the government. On a sequential basis, they expect both core and noncore price pressures to continue weakening reflecting the recent moderation in activity, falling money growth and relative FX stability.
  • Going forward, GS see annual inflation remaining range bound in the low 60s from here into Q2-24 before falling to a below consensus +30.0% y/y by end-2024 assuming monetary taps will be kept shut and policy will remain tight for a sufficiently long period. They note that the risks to this forecast are to the downside.

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