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Goldman Sachs Expect Possible Increase Of Dovish Overtones, Feb Meeting Live

MEXICO
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, the policy signals and balance of views in the Nov 23 minutes, Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%.
  • GS foresee the maintenance of the vigilant/conservative guidance but possibly with an increase of dovish overtones throughout the policy statement to suggest, without pre-committing, that easing is likely in 1Q24, with Feb potentially a live meeting for the first rate cut.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to acknowledge the visible progress on the disinflation front, both at the headline and core level, though with still sticky services inflation dynamics.
  • GS expect the post meeting policy statement to acknowledge that the policy rate is currently at a significantly restrictive level and that domestic demand has been remarkably resilient despite a complex external environment (grew at a solid slightly above consensus pace during Jan-Sept 2023) and that the labour market remains strong; leading to positive output and labour market gaps.
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