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Goldman Sachs Foresee Maintenance Of Conservative Forward Guidance

MEXICO
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, the policy signals and balance of views in the Aug 24 minutes, Goldman Sachs expect Banxico to hold the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%.
  • GS foresee the maintenance of vigilant/conservative forward guidance broadly in line with that of the Aug meeting when the MPC stated that although the economy has entered a disinflation stage it anticipates a complex and uncertain inflation outlook over the entire forecast horizon, with upward risks, and that in order to achieve an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target, it considers that “it will be necessary to maintain the policy rate at its current level for an [unspecified] extended period”.
  • They expect the MPC to maintain the balance of risks for inflation biased to the upside, due in part to the recent increase in energy prices and an expansionary 2024 budget proposal.
  • Goldman Sachs expect the post meeting policy statement to acknowledge that the policy rate is currently at a significantly restrictive level and that the main mechanisms of transmission are working well. They also expect the statement to acknowledge that domestic demand has been remarkably resilient in a complex external environment (grew at a solid slightly above consensus pace in 1H2023) and that the labour market remains strong.
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