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Goldman Sachs: Inflation Data Supports Continued Gradual Easing Cycle

BRAZIL
  • Goldman Sachs have assessed that lower food prices, wholesale price deflation, and moderate realized inflation should support the continuation of a gradual easing cycle.
  • However, they note that the room for a near-term acceleration of the pace of rate cuts is very low given a backdrop with resilient real activity, tight labor market backdrop, significant closing of the output gap, expansionary fiscal and quasi-fiscal policy, core and services inflation tracking above 5% and still unanchored short- and-medium-term inflation expectations.
  • Furthermore, GS say the balance of risks for food and fuel inflation is now clearly skewed to the upside, and the fundamentals of services inflation (labor market backdrop and fiscal transfers) demand caution.
  • Finally, the unsettled external backdrop, higher 10-year yields and risk to oil prices from the conflict in the Middle East, also demand caution in the near-term calibration of monetary policy.
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