​Goldman Sachs & J.P. Morgan Don't Expect Further MAS Tightening ​

Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan also don't expect any further MAS tightening this year, although J.P. Morgan stays long the SGD NEER, see below.

Goldman Sachs: "The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) decided to keep the slope of the SGD NEER policy band unchanged at 1.5%/annum, while keeping the width and the level at which it is centered unchanged. While this was in line with our view, the majority of forecasters and market participants appear to have expected additional tightening. Looking ahead, as the output gap turns negative and with core inflation pressures likely to moderate in 2H 2023, we do not factor in additional MAS tightening in our baseline projections. The next bi-annual meeting is in October 2023."

J.P. Morgan: "For the rest of this year, we maintain our view that the MAS will remain on hold. In previous MAS meetings which marked the end of a tightening cycle, SGD NEER has historically not trended lower in the short term after the meeting date. This implies that even if the market starts to eventually price in easing, it is unlikely that the NEER should move lower in the near term. Moreover, forwards are already pricing in the NEER moving back to the midpoint of the band in six to nine months from now, from the current 1.2% above the mid. We remain long SGD NEER."