Goldman Sachs Maintain Brexit Base Case

Goldman Sachs suggest that "ultimately, we think the pre-requisite for any EU-UK trade deal will entail a demonstrable commitment from Downing Street that the Withdrawal Agreement will indeed be upheld, in full. In the meantime, the parallel approach established in recent weeks suggests that the concerns raised by the Internal Market Bill have not jeopardised the zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement in our post-Brexit base case. Although this week's ninth round of trade negotiations have been preceded by more encouraging signs of convergence, the path to that FTA is likely to remain fragile. We continue to expect periods of escalation in the perceived probability of a breakdown in EU-UK negotiations, but we maintain our core view that the most likely outcome is a "thin" trade deal, likely agreed by early November and subsequently ratified by the end of December."