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Goldman Sachs on Announced Fiscal Measures

BRAZIL
  • The announced package leans heavily on revenue measures and the spending side measures are underwhelming. Finance minister Haddad stressed the need to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies and underscored that the economy has been decelerating since August.
  • Haddad also stated that credit is key to “restart the economy”. Openly criticising the central bank, the minister stated that the tightening cycle “messed up the credit system”.
  • Overall, the government seems keen on limiting the projected increase in the budget deficit in 2023. That is positive, but the authorities continue to show some reluctance to embrace meaningful permanent cuts in current spending (including costly poorly targeted tax exemptions/subsidies) and to openly recognize the need to achieve a primary fiscal surplus of roughly 2% of GDP to stabilize the public debt dynamics.
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