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Goldman Sachs on Banxico Minutes Scheduled For Thursday

MEXICO
  • Expect the minutes to show a fair amount of dispersion of views among directors around the outlook for inflation, the balance of macro and financial risks, and how conservative the monetary stance should be.
  • GS will pay particular attention to the discussion among directors of the monetary policy outlook and whether the June (surprise) and August (expected) hikes are likely to be followed up by additional policy rate increases, or whether it is potentially just a two (possibly three) hike(s) adjustment to the monetary stance if inflation evolves along the MPC's upwardly revised path (with convergence to the target now expected only by 1Q2023).
  • They will be looking for signals on how the MPC plans to calibrate policy forward with relation to changing guidance from the FOMC. GS will also focus on discussion about the real business cycle dynamics, and outlook for the remainder of 2021 given the deterioration of the covid backdrop in Mexico, and its main trading partner which is triggering downward revisions for 2H growth in the US.
  • In their assessment, additional negative inflation surprises, deterioration of inflation expectations, and/or further hawkish shifts of FOMC guidance, would most likely be met by additional moderate rate hikes, but the bar for another hike at the next meeting is likely higher than at the August meeting.
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