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Goldman Sachs on BCCh Minutes

CHILE
  • Goldman Sachs say they will be looking in the minutes for a possible debate among directors on the terminal level to which they anticipate taking the monetary policy rate. They also expect to see a discussion on the conditions that would prompt the MPC to deviate from their baseline path for monetary policy and adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance (e.g., double-digit terminal rate).
  • They will also look for a potential discussion on why the central bank anticipates inflation will significantly moderate in 2023 (expect headline to print below target by year-end 2023) as well as the importance that Board members assign to the slowdown of economic activity (output gap closing by the end of 2022 and turning slightly negative through 2024) and its effect on inflation dynamics.
  • GS believe that the MPC will raise the policy rate further in the next couple of meetings to a terminal rate of at least 9.75% (risk skewed to the upside with a double-digit terminal rate a growing possibility). They also expect monetary policy to remain tighter than forecasted by the central bank over the relevant policy horizon, given their significantly less benign view than the central bank on inflation in 2023.
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