Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
- Overall, the minutes show that the MPC turned visibly more hawkish given significant changes to macro outlook: overheating domestic demand, sizeable positive output gap, and sharp deterioration of the current and prospective inflation outlook amidst a balance of risks for inflation still skewed to the upside.
- In their assessment, given the backdrop of an overheating economy (positive output gap and visible deterioration of the external accounts despite favourable terms of trade) and above-target inflation throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy, the monetary stance needs to eventually move into slightly restrictive territory.
- The upcoming September inflation print and legislative developments around a potential fourth withdrawal of pension savings will ultimately determine whether at the Oct 13 meeting the MPC will follow-up with another 75bp hike or go back to a milder 50bp hike. In their view, another 75bp rate hike is warranted.
- At this juncture GS expect the policy rate to reach 2.50%-2.75% by end-2021, and further up to a slightly restrictive 4.00%-4.25% by end-2022, i.e., modestly above-neutral.