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Goldman Sachs on BCRP: Assess Small Probability Of Hold-And-Monitor

PERU
  • GS expect the MPC to deliver another 25bp hike. In their assessment, a follow-up 25bp hike would be warranted given a backdrop where, although moderating at the margin, inflation and inflation expectations continue to track considerably above the demanding target band, heightened domestic political and policy uncertainty, and the recent hawkish actions and guidance by central banks in core economies.
  • They assess a small probability of a hold-and-monitor decision. Governor Velarde mentioned recently that the MPC is open to additional adjustments, if necessary, but that interest rates will probably not rise further in 2023, reinforcing their view that the end of the tightening cycle is near.
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  • GS expect the MPC to deliver another 25bp hike. In their assessment, a follow-up 25bp hike would be warranted given a backdrop where, although moderating at the margin, inflation and inflation expectations continue to track considerably above the demanding target band, heightened domestic political and policy uncertainty, and the recent hawkish actions and guidance by central banks in core economies.
  • They assess a small probability of a hold-and-monitor decision. Governor Velarde mentioned recently that the MPC is open to additional adjustments, if necessary, but that interest rates will probably not rise further in 2023, reinforcing their view that the end of the tightening cycle is near.