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Goldman Sachs On BRL: Inflation-Fighting Credentials Reaffirmed

BRAZIL
  • Continued monetary policy vigilance underscores the key reason why BRL remains a top choice for EM FX investors: Brazil features a “virtuous circle” in which the Real is likely to benefit from rising real rates (as inflation continues to fall while nominal rates are kept elevated), and in which local rates are likely to benefit from a resilient Real.
  • Risks remain on the fiscal front, of course, and a significant policy misstep may still overshadow the overall FX-supportive macro environment in Brazil. And, we will be closely watching this week’s inflation print for any hints that, having now fallen from above 12% to below 6%, a further deceleration of headline inflation in Brazil could be bumpier than what we’ve seen so far.
  • Still, after being among the earliest and most emphatic central banks to raise rates in early 2021, the COPOM has reaffirmed its commitment to tackling inflation; overall, Goldman Sachs are shifting their USD/BRL forecasts lower: to 4.90, 4.85, and 4.80 in 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively (from 5.20, 5.20, and 5.00 previously).
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