Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Goldman Sachs On BRL: Inflation-Fighting Credentials Reaffirmed

  • Continued monetary policy vigilance underscores the key reason why BRL remains a top choice for EM FX investors: Brazil features a “virtuous circle” in which the Real is likely to benefit from rising real rates (as inflation continues to fall while nominal rates are kept elevated), and in which local rates are likely to benefit from a resilient Real.
  • Risks remain on the fiscal front, of course, and a significant policy misstep may still overshadow the overall FX-supportive macro environment in Brazil. And, we will be closely watching this week’s inflation print for any hints that, having now fallen from above 12% to below 6%, a further deceleration of headline inflation in Brazil could be bumpier than what we’ve seen so far.
  • Still, after being among the earliest and most emphatic central banks to raise rates in early 2021, the COPOM has reaffirmed its commitment to tackling inflation; overall, Goldman Sachs are shifting their USD/BRL forecasts lower: to 4.90, 4.85, and 4.80 in 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively (from 5.20, 5.20, and 5.00 previously).

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.