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Goldman Sachs On State Gubernatorial Elections This Weekend

MEXICO
  • It is worth noting that there will be gubernatorial and mayoral elections this Sunday, in the pivotal State of Mexico, and in the northern state of Coahuila with both states having been longstanding PRI strongholds.
  • Goldman Sachs suggest political noise is likely to pick up as we approach the 2024 election and the overall policy mix may deteriorate following the vote. Many investors fear that hitherto fiscal conservatism is just an attribute of President AMLO, one that is not broadly shared by either his Morena political party, or by its main presidential hopefuls.
  • Furthermore, no other early presidential candidate seems to have AMLO’s charisma, strong emotional connection with voters, and tight grip on the scrappy Morena party. Hence, the political transition in 2024 may entail non-trivial policy and political/governability risks.
  • Although local elections tend to be a function of mostly local issues and local political dynamics, they should nevertheless provide a fresh signal of Morena’s overall electoral appeal and the strength and viability of the opposition coalition.
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