MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 24

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY203.9 Bln Via OMO Wednesday

MNI: JAPAN JUNE SERVICES PPI +3.0% Y/Y; MAY REV +2.7%

MNI BRIEF: Japan June Services PPI Rises 3.0% Vs. May's 2.7%

US Treasury Auction Calendar

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman Sachs on the Potential Shift in Turkey’s MonPol Landscape

TURKEY
  • The opposition has stated that reshuffling the Central Bank leadership would be at the top of its agenda should they gain power, and Goldman Sachs expect that Kilicdaroglu would announce and appoint a new Central Bank governor with a new MPC board within the same week of taking office.
  • Accordingly, Goldman Sachs would expect a sharp rise in rates from +8.50% to a rate above the current momentum of inflation.
  • Goldman Sachs think that the policy rate is likely to stay unchanged should the incumbent government win the election with a shift in policy approach unlikely.
  • The transition to a new policy paradigm implies some risk in the short term. The CBRT and the Treasury have taken on sizable net FX risk through measures that were designed to limit TRY depreciation, amounting to more than $140bln (more than 15% of GDP) worth of short term instruments. Phasing out these instruments would require local investors to dedollarise or large foreign inflows if this is not to put undue pressure on TRY.
  • Should the opposition win, Goldman Sachs think a sharp up-front TRY depreciation after political uncertainty is reduced is unlikely. The removal of the macroprudential regulations, which are likely FX negative on impact, could only be phased in over time and would likely to lead to some depreciation.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.