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Goldman Sachs Raise SARB Rate Expectations: Sees Final 25bps Hike in May

SARB
  • Goldman Sachs write that while the underlying SA inflation picture remains far more benign than elsewhere, the SARB’s response to the recent increase in inflation risks has been unequivocally hawkish.
  • They revise higher their inflation forecast from 5.6% to 6.2% for 2023, taking a more hawkish view on supply factors and FX in the short term. As such, they raise their rate forecast and now expect tighter policy for longer.
  • GS pencil in a final 25bp hike at the 25th May MPC meeting to a terminal 8.00% policy rate (up from 7.75% previously) and push expectations for the start of rate cuts from Q1 to Q2 2024.
  • Their revised forecasts are now slightly more hawkish than Consensus and the SARB’s in the near term, but significantly more dovish in the medium term, due to demand-side factors that they expect to remain very disinflationary.
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