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Goldman Sachs Revise 3-, 6- and 12-Month EUR/HUF Forecasts Higher

HUF
  • Goldman Sachs continue to expect the NBH to remain attentive of HUF developments, particularly any volatile weakening. This could warrant some added caution in coming meetings and should limit the extent of sharp currency moves. Still, they note that this does not change the broader negative impact of monetary policy on the currency nor the long-term HUF valuation.
  • While the recovery in external balances has been an important structural tailwind, the cumulative increase in the inflation differential through the last couple of years points to a higher nominal exchange rate than before.
  • On the other hand, HUF could benefit from a recovery in global manufacturing and, more broadly, from a positive risk backdrop. To reflect these factors and recent market moves Goldman Sachs revise their EUR/HUF forecasts higher to 390, 395, 400 in 3-, 6- and 12-months (from 375, 375, 380 previously).
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