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Goldman Sachs Revise China GDP Forecasts For Coming Quarters

CHINA
  • Q3 real GDP growth forecast cut from 17.5% (qoq annualized) to 14.0%, but they boost their Q4 forecast from 4.0% (qoq annualized) to 5.0% on the assumption of easing energy constraints into year-end.
  • Their 2022 full-year forecast falls even further below consensus, to 3.0% (from 3.3% previously). They cite weak domestic demand combined with muted inflation, weak credit growth and poor July activity data.
  • On intervention, they write that major stimulus is unlikely, with the PBOC’s 10bps cut not signalling the beginning of more aggressive easing. Policymakers focus is more likely to be on stemming further downside risks and ensuring employment levels ahead of the 20th Party Congress.
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