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Goldman Sachs Revise Near-Term Forecasts


Goldman Sachs note that they "see several reasons for the Yen to outperform its rates "beta" this year, including more limited appetite for unhedged investment in U.S. assets, less carry-related selling, and scope for increased equity inflow. History also shows that USD/JPY returns have moved in the same direction as the broad Dollar two-thirds of the time since the early 1970s (outside of periods of clear monetary policy divergence), and we maintain our bearish USD view over the next 12 months. That said, the Yen's sensitivity to rates should not be zero, and our colleagues' recent analysis suggests long USD/JPY positions may offer good optionality for scenarios in which real rates rise more quickly than we expect. Combined with our economists' recently revised forecast for a bigger US stimulus bill and on the back of rising bond yields, we are building in a bit of downside to our near-term path for the Yen. As a result, we are revising up our USD/JPY forecasts to Y106 in 3 months and Y103 in 6 months (vs. Y103 and Y102, previously), and leaving our 12-month forecast unchanged at Y100."

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