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Goldman Sachs Say Banxico On Hold For Long

MEXICO
  • Very minor policy-insignificant changes to the post-meeting statement. The forward guidance did not change; remaining conservative: On hold for long. The MPC states that the disinflation trend has advanced but continues to anticipate a complex and uncertain outlook for inflation over the entire forecast horizon, with upward risks.
  • The balance of risks for inflation over the forecast horizon “remains biased to the upside”. The MPC noted that annual headline and core inflation continued to moderate; but remain high (non-core at historically low levels).
  • Domestic economic activity has shown resilience in a complex external environment and the labor market remains strong. The overall balance of risks for growth is balanced. The MPC forecasts for headline and core inflation across the entire forecasting horizon suffered only marginal/small revisions. Convergence to the 3% target is still expected by 4Q2024.
  • The ex-ante real policy rate is now tracking at around 6.40%, visibly above the 3.4% upper-limit of the estimated neutral range. Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged until at least 4Q2023, possibly 1H2024.
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