MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 27

MNI BRIEF: BOJ: Rate Hike Chance Nearing; Mull Patiently

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY6.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1893 Fri; -2.12% Y/Y

MNI JAPAN NOV FACTORY OUTPUT DROPS 2.3% M/M; OCT +2.8%

MNI JAPAN NOV JOBLESS RATE AT 2.5%, UNCHANGED FROM OCT

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -93 BCF TO 3,529 BCF DEC 27 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 219K IN DEC 21 WK

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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COLOMBIA: Goldman Sachs Say Min. Wage Hike Likely To Slow Disinflation Process

COLOMBIA
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  • Goldman Sachs believe the minutes reiterated the hawkish post-meeting signals and signalled that a cautious cutting cycle preserves the goal of bringing inflation back to the target by year-end. In turn, by toning down the easing bias, the minutes reinforced the message that the next policy decision will be truly data-dependent.
  • The minutes dropped the statement that the conditions to continue cutting remain favourable, signalling that the size of the next rate cut will be conditional on favourable incoming data.
  • GS note that the sizable 9.5% minimum wage hike after the meeting—well above the staff’s expectation of 6.5%—will likely slow further the disinflation of sticky services, and may limit the possibility of resuming the previous pace of 50bp cuts in the Jan-Mar meetings given strong Q1 seasonal patterns.
  • Owing to a negative output gap, and a still very restrictive stance, GS continue to expect consecutive but moderate cuts in 2025, but see the risks to this forecast as clearly skewed towards the possibility of fewer cuts.
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  • Goldman Sachs believe the minutes reiterated the hawkish post-meeting signals and signalled that a cautious cutting cycle preserves the goal of bringing inflation back to the target by year-end. In turn, by toning down the easing bias, the minutes reinforced the message that the next policy decision will be truly data-dependent.
  • The minutes dropped the statement that the conditions to continue cutting remain favourable, signalling that the size of the next rate cut will be conditional on favourable incoming data.
  • GS note that the sizable 9.5% minimum wage hike after the meeting—well above the staff’s expectation of 6.5%—will likely slow further the disinflation of sticky services, and may limit the possibility of resuming the previous pace of 50bp cuts in the Jan-Mar meetings given strong Q1 seasonal patterns.
  • Owing to a negative output gap, and a still very restrictive stance, GS continue to expect consecutive but moderate cuts in 2025, but see the risks to this forecast as clearly skewed towards the possibility of fewer cuts.