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Goldman Sachs See Case of When, Not If, TRY Weakens Significantly

TURKEY

Goldman Sachs see more a question of when, rather than if, TRY weakens significantly:

  • International reserves have fallen precipitously and are now close to levels that have previously seen significant TRY weakness.
  • They see the current policy mix as unsustainable, and the currency is now significantly overvalued in real terms.
  • They write that tourism revenues may bring some temporary respite over the summer months, giving the authorities the option to delay the adjustment. But, given that municipal elections are scheduled for April 2024, it is also possible that the authorities might opt for an earlier adjustment.
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