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Goldman Sachs See Hungarian Rates Reaching 7.50%

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs write that they continue to expect a hawkish economic environment to persist in Hungary.
  • They project inflation to increase in the coming months, and the recent exchange rate weakness raises the possibility of pushing up and further out the peak in inflation this year.
  • On top of this, the recurring and significant depreciation pressures on the currency limits the room to maneuver for the central bank, and while they expect the MNB to increase the 1-week depo rate by 30bp to +6.75% later in the week, they think that risks are increasing that it will need to deliver more than that in the near-term.
  • Beyond the near-term, GS forecast policy rates to reach +7.50%, but with risks to their inflation forecast skewed to the upside, they also think that risks to their policy rate view are skewed in a hawkish direction.
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