BOC SAYS DOESN'T NEED TO ALTER PATH OF QT RIGHT NOW

this is a test, please ignore

MNI BRIEF: Text of Bank Of Canada Interest-Rate Decision

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, July 24

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY203.9 Bln Via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1358 Weds; -0.98% Y/Y

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Short Term and BTPeis on Thursday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Italy, UK Auction on Friday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman Sachs See Increasing Likelihood of TRY Adjustment Lower

TURKEY
  • Under current fundamentals, Goldman Sachs’ model suggests that TRY may need to weaken by 10% in real trade-weighted terms, with more depreciation required if the current account deficit widens further. From current spot levels, this would take USD/TRY close to 23. But, with inflation still expected to be averaging close to 30% next year, the degree of nominal depreciation over the longer-term would likely have to be larger, they say.
  • Goldman Sachs economists note that because of seasonal tourism revenues during the summer months, the authorities may be able to delay a sharp FX adjustment. That said, given that municipal elections are scheduled for April 2024, it is also possible that the authorities might opt for an earlier adjustment.
  • Set against this, Goldman Sachs believe the choice of Mehmet Simsek as the new treasury and finance minister increases the likelihood that monetary policy will shift towards a more orthodox direction.
  • Goldman Sachs revise their USD/TRY forecasts higher to 23.00, 25.00 and 28.00 in 3-, 6- and 12-months (versus 19.00, 21.00 and 22.00, previously).
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.