MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, August 1

MNI: BOE VOTES 5-4 FOR 25 BPS RATE CUT AT AUG MEETING

MNI BRIEF: BOJ To Focus On Continued Positive Wage Setting

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP To Rise 0.5% Q/Q; 2.2% Annualised

MNI BRIEF: China Retains Ample Policy Space In H2 – NDRC

MNI BRIEF: Caixin July Manufacturing PMI Falls Below 50

VDMA Factory Orders Remain Weak in June

IFO Employment Lower Again

Swiss July CPI Preview - Expected Below SNB Q3 Projections

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Goldman Sachs: Statement To Turn More Dovish, Leaving Door Open For March Cut

MEXICO
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, the policy signals and balance of views in the Jan 4 minutes, Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%.
  • GS expect the policy statement to turn more dovish, with the forward guidance eventually shifting to a more neutral data-dependent mode leaving the door open for a rate cut at the March meeting. They do not rule out more direct and explicit guidance to a rate cut in March.
  • GS expect the MPC to acknowledge the progress on the disinflation front, particularly at core level, but to note the reacceleration of headline inflation and the high and sticky services inflation.
  • They expect the post meeting policy statement to acknowledge that the policy rate is currently at a significantly restrictive level and that domestic demand seems to have decelerated in Q4. However, the labour market remains strong, and the economy is still operating with positive output and labour market gaps.
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