MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: GERMANY OCT EXPORTS -2.8% M/M (VS FCST -2.6%)

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY14.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1876 Fri; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Goldman Sachs: Statement To Turn More Dovish, Leaving Door Open For March Cut

MEXICO
  • Given the recent domestic and external macro-financial developments, the policy signals and balance of views in the Jan 4 minutes, Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to hold the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%.
  • GS expect the policy statement to turn more dovish, with the forward guidance eventually shifting to a more neutral data-dependent mode leaving the door open for a rate cut at the March meeting. They do not rule out more direct and explicit guidance to a rate cut in March.
  • GS expect the MPC to acknowledge the progress on the disinflation front, particularly at core level, but to note the reacceleration of headline inflation and the high and sticky services inflation.
  • They expect the post meeting policy statement to acknowledge that the policy rate is currently at a significantly restrictive level and that domestic demand seems to have decelerated in Q4. However, the labour market remains strong, and the economy is still operating with positive output and labour market gaps.
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