MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 12

MNI BRIEF: China June M2 SlowsTo Record Low For Third Month

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Export Growth Slows In June

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

Retail Sales / Services Turnover Publications Postponed Indefinitely

CHINA H1 NEW LOANS CNY13.27 TRLN VS JAN-MAY CNY11.14 TRLN

Inflation Momentum Ticks Up Despite Lower-than-expected Print

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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Goldman Sachs: Still On Track For A December Taper Announcement

FED

Goldman sees the FOMC as "unlikely to deliver the first hint about tapering" at the July meeting - with Powell saying in mid-July that "substantial further progress" required for tapering remains "a ways off", the spread of the Delta covid variant, and bond market expressing anxiety about the outlook.

  • "Most of the FOMC is unlikely to see a need to accelerate the start date or pace of tapering at this point."
  • Future action: Taper hints in Sep and Nov, formal announcement in December ($10B Tsy / $5B MBS per meeting, last one Nov 2022). Rate hikes on the table ~ March 2023, with first hike in 3Q 2023.
  • Fed to be reluctant to tweak MBS vs Tsy purchase proportions, but if they do, could be $10B Tsy / $10B MBS pace.
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