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Goldman Says The Distillate Market Selloff Signals A Hit To Global GDP

OIL PRODUCTS

The selloff in the distillate market signals a hit to global GDP, with the distillate market pricing in a more than a 3 percentage point hit to global real GDP, Goldman analysts, including Callum Bruce, said.

  • One-third of the selloff in European distillate cracks since January reflects a ~1mbpd weaker demand outlook compared with the bank’s expectations.
  • The bank’s NW Europe Gasoil crack forecast for 2023 has been revised down by $8/bbl to $25/bbl, and for 2024 by $3/bbl to $28/bbl.
  • Gasoline shortages in summer remain bullish as octane shortages continue to dictate price action, the analysts added.

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