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Goldman: Shelter And Medical Services To Boost CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Goldman's in line with consensus on core October CPI, eyeing a +0.42% unrounded rise.

  • This reflects a rebound in used car prices, and further gains in new car/auto parts prices, with supply chain bottlenecks / labor shortages also helping boost broader prices (eg furniture, recreation, personal care).
  • They're also expecting the Delta drag on hotel prices to reverse.
  • On shelter prices, they expect rent to rise 0.40% M/M and OER 0.35%, " reflecting the strength in our shelter tracker but a drag from imputed utilities".
  • They also expect the BLS's incorporation of new source data for health insurance to lead to a "sizeable pickup" in medical services inflation.

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