Goldman's Brexit Base Case

On Brexit, Goldman Sachs suggest that the "delicate balance implies that the risk of a breakdown in negotiations cannot be ruled out. Having said that, the latest smoke signals from London and Brussels suggest that political leaders have begun to create the time and space required for compromise. We continue to think the perceived probability of "no deal" will persist beyond the next European Council meeting in mid-October, but our core view remains that a "thin" zero-tariff/zero-quota trade agreement will likely be struck by early November, and subsequently ratified by the end of December."