NORWAY
Smaller than expected “Black week” sales look to be a driver of the firmer-than-expected November CPI-ATE print, with domestic goods inflation accelerating to 5.2% Y/Y (vs 4.1% prior). Services inflation was steady at 3.5% Y/Y. As noted earlier, we don't think there isn’t enough of a downward surprise to the September MPR projections to shift consensus towards a December Norges Bank rate cut, but will be closely watching Thursday's Regional Network Survey.
- Seasonally adjusted inflation momentum (3m/3m saar) picked up to 2.5% (vs 2.2% prior), though remains below the YTD average of 2.9%.
- The household goods and furniture component saw prices fall 0.4% in November 2024, but this was less than the 1.7% M/M fall last year. As such, the annual rate accelerated to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 1.2% prior).
- Communication and recreation components also saw smaller price falls than November 2023, driving an uptick in the annual rates.
- Imported goods inflation was in line with the September MPR projections at 1.0% Y/Y.
- Headline CPI was 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons, 2.6% prior), with the deceleration driven by a smaller rise in electricity prices (6.5% M/M) compared to 2023. Annual electricity inflation was thus -10.5% Y/Y.
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