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Google Searches Flag Rising Recession Risks

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION
Metals bulletEM BulletFixed IncomeCommoditiesEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsEmerging MarketsForeign Exchange

Internet search data from Google Trends provide a real-time gauge of global economic sentiment - and the latest data suggest that "recession" searches have picked up sharply worldwide.

  • In many cases (notably US, UK) they have risen to levels that have previously indicated an actual concurrent recession (in 2008-09 and early 2020).
  • That said, other recession-related searches (such as "unemployment") aren't rising as much. But "inflation" and "stagflation" are at/near all-time highs.
  • Perhaps the recent Google "recession" search surge should be interpreted as more of an inflation-related consumer sentiment indicator than a sign of overall economic downturn.
  • Also there's something of a divergence between searches spiking in North America/Europe, vs remaining relatively flat in Asia-Pac.
  • See link below for full PDF of charts:

GoogleTrendsRecessionMay16-2022.pdf

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Internet search data from Google Trends provide a real-time gauge of global economic sentiment - and the latest data suggest that "recession" searches have picked up sharply worldwide.

  • In many cases (notably US, UK) they have risen to levels that have previously indicated an actual concurrent recession (in 2008-09 and early 2020).
  • That said, other recession-related searches (such as "unemployment") aren't rising as much. But "inflation" and "stagflation" are at/near all-time highs.
  • Perhaps the recent Google "recession" search surge should be interpreted as more of an inflation-related consumer sentiment indicator than a sign of overall economic downturn.
  • Also there's something of a divergence between searches spiking in North America/Europe, vs remaining relatively flat in Asia-Pac.
  • See link below for full PDF of charts:

GoogleTrendsRecessionMay16-2022.pdf

Keep reading...Show less